Polls

Anticipation is high for November's election, and it's my turn to play Talking Head.

Like any reporter in the traditional media, I will tell you that the election is tight (after all, I don't want you to get bored -- I need ratings!), and could go either way, depending on October Surprises, the turnout, voter excitement, the Bradley effect, the anti-Bradley effect, the economy, the stock market, and the candidates' ground games.

About the best case McCain can hope for, if everything goes his way:

And likewise, the best Obama can hope for:

The maps were made on RealClearPolitics, a site run by republicans and largely highlighting anti-Obama news stories (from sites like the National Review). They assemble all the various polls into composite scores. There has been some question about the neutrality of the polls they select to include in their composite, but overall it's pretty good. Not nearly as cool as Five Thirty-Eight, but then 538 doesn't have a tool where you can select who you think will win a particular state.

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